Scottish independence: What might happen next?

Boris Johnson has rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a new referendum on independence in 2020 – but the Scottish first minister says this “will not stand”.

The SNP’s goal is for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom and rejoin the EU as an independent member state.

So how is Ms Sturgeon likely to respond?

Why is Scottish independence back in the spotlight?

Scotland held an independence referendum in September 2014, with the No campaign winning 55% of the votes.

But then, in 2016, Brexit happened. Voters in Scotland backed Remain by 62% – but those across the UK as a whole voted Leave by 52%.

The SNP saw this as a “material change in circumstances” which would justify a second independence ballot, because Scotland faced being taken out of the EU “against its will”.

And the party has since performed strongly in elections. It won 48 of the 59 seats north of the border in last month’s general election, while campaigning to “put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands”

In any case, Ms Sturgeon wants the UK government to agree a transfer of powers allowing a referendum to be held, as happened in 2014.

Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader, says this would ensure the referendum result was seen as being entirely legal and legitimate, particularly by the EU.

But Prime Minister Boris Johnson has flatly rejected her request, arguing that the 2014 poll was a “once in a generation” event.

What will Nicola Sturgeon do now?

The first minister says Mr Johnson’s position is unsustainable, and that his refusals will simply increase support for independence.

She has warned that “you can’t hold Scotland in the union against its will”.

If these political arguments do not budge Mr Johnson, the first minister has not ruled out taking him to court. However this would be a difficult and potentially lengthy process, and constitutional scholars have warned that “there are no legal short cuts” around the political battlefield.

One thing Ms Sturgeon has ruled out is an unauthorised vote. She says the example of Catalonia proves this “does not lead to independence”.

Perhaps the clearest option open to her might be to target a really big win in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021, on an explicit platform of demanding a referendum – but the SNP argues that it has won several electoral mandates already.

Would Scots vote for independence?

This is the big question – after all Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t just want to hold a referendum, she wants to win one.

Polling data collected by What Scotland Thinks suggests an increase in support for independence – but it generally remains just short of a majority.