Spain brings ‘R’ number below 1 as six weeks of restrictions slow COVID-19 caseload

Spain has succeeded in bring its ‘R’ number – a measure of COVID-19 infection rates – below one following weeks of restrictions across the country.

Spain’s national coronavirus incidence rate remains high, but has been on a downward trend for a week, according to daily updates from the Spanish Ministry of Health.

Friday’s report (source) put the 14-day accumulated incidence of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants at 498, down from a record of 528 registered on 4th November.

The health restrictions have also seen the R number fall below one over the past week.

This number estimates how many new patients a person with coronavirus will infect – if the number is less than one, it means that infections are on the decline.

Spain’s accumulated incidence is now lower than France, Italy, Poland, Belgium, Check Republic, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Portugal.

The UK’s AI is currently at 450 cases per 100,000.

Despite a decline in cases, it will be some time before this fall is reflected in the number of fatalities.

The Health Ministry added 308 deaths to the official toll on Friday, down from 356 on Thursday, and bringing the total number of Coronavirus-related deaths to 40,769.

Graphs of death rates show an increase during this second wave, but not nearly as high as during the first wave.

As deaths trail an increase in cases, it is likely that fatalities rates may increase or remain high even as cases start to decline.